자신있게 결정하라 / Decisive : how to make better choices in life and work

<자신있게 결정하라> Decisive : how to make better choices in life and work by chip heath, dan heath

 

어떤 일을 결정할때 효과적인 방법에 대한 책이다. 저자들의 다른 책들과 비슷하게 학술적인 참고문헌들이 많고, 약간은 잡지의 기고문 같은 느낌으로 읽히는 책이다. 

 

pp. 5 

"Taking the bias out of meetings,"  

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/taking-the-bias-out-of-meetings

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-case-for-behavioral-strategy

https://carpenterstrategytoolbox.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/decisionbias-mckinseyq0311.pdf

 

pp. 34

• You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options.

• Widen your options.

• You analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information.

• Realty-test your assumptions

• You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one.

• Attain distance before deciding

• Then you live with it. But you'll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.

• Prepare to be wrong

 

pp. 38

College Match : http://collegematch.homestead.com/

 

pp. 45

Our lack of attention to opportunity costs is so common, in fact, that it can be shocking when someone acknowledges them.  ... Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953 

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=9819

The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. This, I repeat, is the best way of life to be found on the road. the world has been taking.

 

pp. 55

Kathleen Eisenhardt

• First, comparing alternatives helps executives to understand the "landscape": what's possible and what's not, what variables are involved. That understanding provides the confidence needed to make a quick decision.

• Second, considering multiple alternatives seems to undercut politics. With more options, people get less invested in an one of them, freeing them up to change positions as they learn. ... multitracking seems to help keep egos under control.

• Third, when leaders weighs multiple options, they've given themselves a built-in fallback plan. 

 

pp. 56

... One rule of thumb is to keep searching for options until you fall in love at least twice.

 

pp. 59

One is triggered when we think about avoiding bad things, and one is triggered when we think about pursuing good things. When we're in one state, we tend to ignore the other.

 

pp. 69

To break out of a narrow frame, we need options, and one of the more basic way to generate new options is to find someone else who's solved your problem. 

 

pp. 73

Bright spots

• https://www.fastcompany.com/1634997/dan-heath-how-find-bright-spots

• https://www.samuelthomasdavies.com/bright-spots/

• https://brightspotsculture.wordpress.com/the-original-story/

 

pp. 102

"On Being a Happy, Healthy, and Ethical Member of an Unhappy, Unhealthy, and Unethical Profession." by Patrick J. Schlitz

https://repository.law.umich.edu/alumni_survey_scholarship/13/ 

 

pp. 103

There Is Such a Thing As a Stupid Question: Question Disclosure in Strategic Communication by Julia Minson, Nicole E. Ruedy, Maurice E. Schweitzer

http://acrwebsite.org/volumes/1012889/volumes/v40/NA-40

http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v40/acr_v40_12889.pdf

http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/DPlab/papers/workingPapers/Minson_working_Ask%20(the%20Right%20Way)%20and%20You%20Shall%20Receive.pdf

 

pp. 110

<Brilliant Mistakes: Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure> by Paul J. H. Schoemaker 

 

pp. 140

<Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries> by Peter Sims

 

pp. 142

<Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?> by Philip Tetlock

 

pp. 221C

It's hard to interrupt these autopilot cycles because, well, that's the whole point of autopilot. We don't think about what we're doing. We drift along in life, floating on the wake of past choices, and it's easy to forget that we have the ability to change direction.

 

pp. 227

But it's easy to forget that most of the deadlines we encounter in life are simply made up. They are artificially created tripwires to force an action or a decision.

 

pp. 250

Success emerges from the quality of the decisions we make and the quantity of luck we receive. We can't control luck. But we can control the way we make choices.

 

That's what a good decision process looks like.

It's not a spreadsheet that spits out "the answer" when we plug in the numbers. It's not a tailed list of pros and cons. It's guardrail that guides us in the right direction.

 

pp. 255

• Daniel Kahneman (2011), "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

• J. Edward Russon and Paul J.H. Schoemaker (2002), "Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time"

• Dan Ariely(2008), "Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decision"

• Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein (2008), "Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness"

• Michael A. Roberto(2009). "Know What You Don't Know: How Great Leaders Prevent Problems Before They Happen"

• Paul B. Carroll and Chunka Mui(2008), "Billion Dollar Lessons: What You Can Learn from the Most Inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 Years"

• John Mullins and Randy Komisar(2009), "Getting to Plan B: Breaking Through to a Better Business Model"

• Andre Hallam(2011), "Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School"

• Aaron T. Beck(1989), "Love Is Never Enough: How Couples Can Overcome Misunderstandings, Resolve Conflicts, and Solve Relationship Problem Through Cognitive Therapy"

 

pp. 277 

Intuitive Decisions  <The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feeling to Make Better Decision at Work> by Gary Klein 

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/five-fifty-gut-instincts

 

Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree. by Daniel Kahneman, Gary Klein

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19739881

 

pp. 281

<Parallel prototyping Leads to Better Design Results, More Divergence, and Increased Self-Efficacy>

by Steven Dow, Alana Glassco, Jonathan Kass, Melissa Schwarz, Daniel L. Schwartz, Scott R. Klemmer

http://spdow.ucsd.edu/files/PrototypingParallel-TOCHI10.pdf

 

pp. 288

<How Can Decision Making Be Improved?> by Dolly Chugh, Katherine L. Milkman & Max H. Bazerman

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/how-can-decision-making-be-improved

 

pp. 291

<The Process-Performance Paradox in Expert Judgment: How Can Experts Know So Much and Predict So Badly?>

by C. Camerer, Eric Johnson

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/1152/Process_and_performance_of_experts.pdf

https://authors.library.caltech.edu/22525/1/334945.pdf