생각에 관한 생각 / Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman 5/1/2017 - 7/3/2017

 

사람들이 항상 이성적인 의사결정을 한다는 가정이 경제학의 기본적인 가정이다. 이성적으로 자기의 이익추구를 위한 결정을 하지만, 결과적으로 사회 전체의 효율을 향상시키고 다른 사람들게도 도움이 되는 결정으로 결론지어진다. 하지만, 실제로 사람들은 이런 이성적인 결정만을 하는 존재와는 지극히 다르고, 그 의사결정은 여러가지 요인을 통해서 영향을 받는다는 사실을 설명한다. 어느 책에서인지 사람에게 남아 있는 파충류의 뇌 - 생존에 필요한 즉각적인 의사결정을 하는 현상 - 을 저자는 System 1 이라는 형태로 설명한다. 사람들인 깊은 이성적인 사고를 하기 전에 거의 기계적인 반응을 하거나 설명할 수 없는 이유로 선호도를 보이는 부분들이다. 이런 내용은 어떤 영역의 대가 혹은 숙련자들이 보여주는 많은 활동에서 찾을 수 있다. 이것과 다르게 과거의 기억과 정보들의 조합을 통해서 이성적인 결정을 하는 System 2라는 부분이 동시에 존재하지만, 이것은 정보들의 입력과 조합, 추론 과정이 필요해서 항상 동작하는 기능은 아니다. 또, 이 기능이 동작한다고 해도 항상 같은 결정을 하지 않음을 여러가지 실험 결과를 통해서 설명한다. 여러가지 선입견-bias-들이 존재하고 다양한 선택제한-framing- 같은 여러가지 요소들이 의사결정 과정에서 영향을 끼치고, 이런 것들은 여러가지 사회현상을 이해하는데 유용한 도구가 될 수 있다. 심리학자로서 사람들의 의사결정에 대한 연구가 저자를 노벨경제학상으로 안내했다. 책이 쉽게 읽히지는 않았지만, 전체 흐름을 따라서 읽어오면서 상당히 많은 새로운 지식을 얻을 수 있었다. 이런 것을 다른 것과 어떻게 연결할 수 있을지는 아직은 생각나지 않는다.

 

• Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment  by Thomas Gilovich  (Editor), Dale Griffin (Editor), Daniel Kahneman  (Editor)

• Choices, Values, and Frames by Daniel Kahneman  (Editor), Amos Tversky  (Editor)

• Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases by Daniel Kahneman  (Editor), Paul Slovic (Editor), Amos Tversky  (Editor)

pp.9 A recurrent theme of this book is that luck plays a large role in every story of success; it is almost always easy to identify a small change in the story that would have turned a remarkable achievement into a mediocre outcome.

 

pp.10 "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk" 

 

pp.11 We can now draw a richer and more balanced picture, in which skill and heuristics are alternative sources of intuitive judgments and choices.

 

pp.27 Müller-Lyer illusion : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCller-Lyer_illusion

 

pp.41 Baumeister's group has repeatedly found that an effort of will or self-control is iring; if you have had to force yourself to do something, you are less willing or less able to exert self-control when the next challenge comes around. The phenomenon has been named ego depletion.

 

pp.48 Stanovich  < Rationality and the Reflective Mind > 

The core of his argument is that rationality should be distinguished from intelligence.

 

pp.51 As cognitive scientists have emphasized in recent years, cognition is embodied; you think with your body, not only with your brain.

 

<An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding 1748> - David Hume.  the principles of association : resemblance, contiguity in time and place, and causality 

 

pp.53 Florida Effect - the ideomotor effect

- primed by word to action or prime by action to words.

 

pp.62~ 

A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.

....  

If you cannot remember the source of a statement, and have no way to relate it to other things you knows, you have no option but to go with the sense of cognitive ease.

...

High quality paper, bright colors, and rhyming or simple language will not be much help if your message is obviously nonsensical, or if it contradicts facts that your audience knows to be true.

 

pp.91 As expected, the effect of facial competence on voting is about three times larger for information-poor and TV-prone voters than for others who are better informed and watch less television.

 

pp.113 "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers" By Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1971) 

 

pp.119 Anchoring effect - when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity.

 

pp.175 the important principle of skill training: rewards for improved performance work better than punishment of mistakes.

 

pp.183 Max bazerman - Judgment in managerial  decision making

 

pp.187 Intensity matching yields predictions that are as extreme as the evidence on which they are based, leading people to give the same answer to two quite different questions.

 

pp. 199 Nassim Taleb <The Black Swan> narrative fallacy - how flowed stories of the past shape our views of the world and our expectations for the future.

 

pp. 202 A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or of any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed. ...

Your inability to reconstruct past beliefs will inevitably cause you to underestimate the extent to which you were surprised by past events. 

hindsight bias - "I-knew-it-all-along"

 

pp.226 Robyn Dawe "The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making"

 

pp.238 Expertise in a domain is not a single skill but rather a large collection of miniskills.

 

pp.250 planning fallacy

• are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios

• could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases

pp.271 "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"

 

pp.311 Possibility effect - which causes highly unlikely outcomes to be weighted disproportionately more than they deserve. ex) 0% -> 5%

 

Certainty effect - that are almost certain are given less weight than their probability justifies. ex) 95% -> 100%

 

pp.312 von Neumann and Morgenstern 

- any weighting of uncertain outcomes that is not strictly proportional to probability leads to inconsistencies and other disasters. Their derivation of the expectation principle from axioms of rational choice was immediately recognized as a monumental achievement, which placed expected utility theory at the core of the rational agent model in economics and other social sciences.

 

pp.326 "Money, Kisses, and Electric Shocks: On the Affective Psychology of Risk " by Yuval Rottenstreich, Christopher K. Hsee

 

pp.344 disposition effect - massive preference for selling winners rather than losers 

 

pp.377 Jeremy Bentham <Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation> - "Nature has placed mankind under the governance of two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. It is for them alone to point out what we ought to do, as well as to determine what we shall do." 

• experienced utility(past or used one) vs. decision utility (wantability or future)